Less than 24 hours after the release of a national poll showed that Peter Obi, the Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party, had expanded his lead in the race for president, another national survey conducted by Stears has predicted the election of Obi as the next President of Nigeria in the event of a massive turnout.
According to a statement released on Tuesday, February 7, 2023, by Stears, an Africa-focused data-driven company founded at the London School of Economics, the company said the “Stears electoral poll and prediction model indicates that Peter Obi is Nigeria’s most popular presidential candidate and should win the presidential ticket as long as Nigerians follow through on their stated intent to vote”.
According to the poll, Peter Obi has a good chance of winning the 2023 Nigerian presidential election if voter turnout is high. The poll revealed that Peter Obi could win the election with as many as 41% of the votes cast, ahead of Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the All Progresses Congress (APC), who is at 31%, and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), at 20%.
The poll, however, tilts toward the presidential candidate of the APC if the election has a low voter turnout, as has been seen in Nigerian elections in recent electoral circles.
“Peter Obi holds a comfortable lead,” the statement read. “In essence, the Stears electoral poll and prediction model affirms that Peter Obi is by far the most popular and desired candidate for the 2023 Presidential Elections.”
“Having said that, to get a more realistic prediction of the outcome of the race, we can apply the same high and low turnout scenarios to our model predictions. When we do so, Peter Obi once again emerges triumphant in the high turnout scenario,” the company revealed.
Like the Nextier Poll, which predicted a run-off election, the Stears poll also sees the possibility of a run-off should all ‘certain voters’ stick to their preferred candidate. According to Stears, the most likely scenario would be a run-off between Obi and Tinubu.
Reacting to the series of predictions in favour of Peter Obi, Valentine Ozigbo, the Special Adviser to Peter Obi on Technology and Strategic Alliances, said, “This outcome is not surprising to those following developments in our politics. His Excellency Peter Obi is the candidate whose message resonated across all demographics in the country.”
“What is this message? A message of hope, unity, peace, love, and shared prosperity.
“Peter Obi’s message speaks to the hearts of Nigerians because despite the vicious and desperate attempts to divide us, at our very core, we all yearn for the same things – the possibilities that would become realities if we have a leader who is competent, credible, and compassionate. Peter Obi ticks all these boxes and more.
“Nigerians have decided it is time for a true transformation driven by the 3Cs of character, capacity, and competence.
“Nigerians have weighed all the options and decided they will support Peter Obi and Datti Baba-Ahmed, who, through their long years in public life, have displayed these 3Cs. They are the team that will move Nigeria from consumption to production. Enough of the corruption,” Ozigbo added.
When asked for comment, Dr Yunusa Salisu Tanko, the Chief Spokesperson of the Obi Datti Presidential Campaign Council, said that the campaign welcomed the result of the poll, which only affirms the outcome of all recent pre-election polls beginning from that published in September 2022 showing Peter Obi with “a solid lead”.
“All the polls can’t be wrong,” Dr Yunusa declared.
“When the ANAP Foundation published its poll results in December 2022 and declared a “solid lead” for Peter Obi, the organisation’s founder was viciously attacked by the APC propaganda machinery.
“They did the same to the founder of one of Nigeria’s most-respected policy consulting firms, Nextier, when the organisation released a credible poll showing that our candidate, Mr Peter Obi, one of the most inspirational leaders on the continent, has made inroads into Northern Nigeria and expanded his lead nationwide.
“Today, Stears Data, considered the most-trusted source of African data and insights and sometimes referred to as “Africa’s Bloomberg,” released its latest poll and called the elections for the Labour Party.
“One wonders what the APC spokesperson would say about this poll. Let’s not forget that ‘Bloomberg’ itself, the world’s most-trusted data company, called the polls for Peter Obi back in September 2022.
“These independent and reputable organisations can’t all be wrong. Nigerians are tired of the lies and Nigeria’s failed status,” the Obi Datti Campaign Spokesperson added.