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Uche J. Udenka
In today’s increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, global trade is no longer just about economics—it is now an extension of foreign policy and national security. The rise in tariff weaponization—the strategic use of import duties and trade restrictions to exert political pressure—marks a significant departure from the post-World War II era of relatively free trade under U.S.-led globalization. This evolution is occurring alongside the decline of unipolar dominance and the rise of a multipolar world order. For Nigeria—a regional powerhouse and Africa’s most populous country—these twin trends present both urgent challenges and historic opportunities.
The Age of Weaponized Tariffs
Historically, tariffs were tools used to protect domestic industries, correct trade imbalances, or generate state revenue. However, in the past decade, they have increasingly become tools of economic coercion, especially among the world’s biggest economies. The U.S.–China trade war is the most prominent example. It began under the Trump administration in 2018 but has largely persisted under Biden, demonstrating bipartisan consensus in Washington. Tariffs were imposed not only to address trade deficits but to undermine China’s technological ambitions and economic rise. China responded in kind, targeting U.S. agricultural exports and key industries. What’s crucial here is that tariffs are no longer about economics alone—they’re about power. They have become instruments of punishment and deterrence, used to enforce political will and reshape global relationships. And this phenomenon is not confined to the U.S. and China. The European Union has used retaliatory tariffs in disputes with the U.S. over subsidies and tech regulations. India and Turkey have imposed tariffs in retaliation for sanctions. Even Africa has not been entirely spared: Algeria, Nigeria, and South Africa have all faced indirect effects of global tariff shifts through currency volatility, supply chain disruptions, and trade diversion.
From Unipolarity to Multipolarity
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States emerged as the sole superpower—a unipolar world where global institutions and norms were largely shaped by American values and interests. The Bretton Woods institutions (IMF, World Bank), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and global financial markets operated under the assumption of U.S. leadership. But that dominance is fading. The multipolar world order that is now emerging includes significant power centers: China, the European Union, Russia, India, and increasingly, coalitions such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and ASEAN. Each bloc pursues its own interests, values, and strategic goals—sometimes in alignment, often in competition. This geopolitical decentralization is fueled by several factors: the weakening of U.S. influence, the rise of China as an economic rival, the assertiveness of the Global South, and the rise of nationalist and protectionist governments worldwide.
Nigeria at the Crossroads
In this turbulent environment, Nigeria cannot afford to remain a passive observer. As Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation, Nigeria stands at a crossroads: it can either adapt to the changing world order or risk being sidelined by more agile nations. Nigeria’s current economic structure is ill-prepared for the volatility of tariff wars. The economy is still highly dependent on crude oil, which accounts for over 90% of export earnings. Meanwhile, it imports most of its manufactured goods and industrial inputs, making it vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions and currency fluctuations triggered by trade disputes elsewhere. Nigeria’s overreliance on a narrow set of trade partners—especially China, the EU, and the U.S.—exposes it to external shocks. If any of these partners engages in a trade war or changes its trade policies, Nigeria’s economy could be caught in the crossfire.
AfCFTA: A Strategic Cushion
One of the most promising developments for Nigeria in this new world order is the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). With 54 signatories, AfCFTA is the largest free trade area in the world by number of countries. Its goal is to increase intra-African trade, reduce external dependency, and foster regional industrialization. For Nigeria, AfCFTA offers a strategic cushion against the chaos of global trade wars. By deepening economic ties with fellow African nations, Nigeria can develop alternative markets for exports, attract regional investment, and spur domestic manufacturing. However, implementation is key. To fully benefit from AfCFTA, Nigeria must overcome several obstacles: poor infrastructure, high logistics costs, electricity shortages, insecurity, and a cumbersome regulatory environment. Without addressing these challenges, Nigeria risks becoming a market for other African producers rather than an industrial leader.
Learning from Global Players
Countries that have successfully navigated the new geopolitical terrain provide lessons for Nigeria: China responded to tariffs with aggressive industrial policy, boosting domestic innovation and seeking tech self-sufficiency.
India emphasized economic nationalism, launching the “Make in India” initiative to reduce dependence on foreign imports.
Russia, after being hit with Western sanctions, turned inward to promote food security and alternative trade routes through Asia and the Middle East.
Nigeria must craft a clear national strategy that mirrors this assertiveness. This includes promoting local production, protecting strategic industries through smart tariffs (not just ad hoc border closures), and investing in education and technology.
Diversification as National Security
In a world where tariffs can be imposed overnight and supply chains disrupted by political conflict, economic diversification is no longer just a development goal—it is national security. Nigeria must reduce its overreliance on oil and broaden its export base to include processed agricultural products, manufactured goods, services, and creative industries. Investing in sectors like agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, fintech, and renewable energy can create jobs and insulate the economy from external shocks. Moreover, strengthening domestic value chains will reduce Nigeria’s exposure to imported inflation and currency instability.
Economic Diplomacy in a Divided World
As the world splits into competing blocs, economic diplomacy will become a defining feature of national power. Nigeria must be proactive in building strategic alliances, not just as a junior partner, but as a regional leader with bargaining power. This includes engaging more assertively with BRICS, strengthening ties with African neighbors, leveraging its position in ECOWAS, and balancing relations with China and the West. Nigeria must also push for reform in global institutions like the WTO and IMF to reflect the interests of the Global South. Furthermore, Nigeria should explore innovative financing models—diaspora bonds, sovereign wealth partnerships, and green finance—to reduce its exposure to traditional lenders who may attach political conditions to assistance.
Seizing the Moment
The weaponization of tariffs and the rise of multipolarity mark the end of business as usual. For Nigeria, the shifting global order presents risks—but it also opens a space for bold, visionary leadership.
To succeed in this new era, Nigeria must:
Embrace industrialization and economic diversification
Invest in infrastructure, education, and technology
Leverage regional trade under AfCFTA
Practice smart protectionism and strategic economic diplomacy
Build resilient institutions capable of navigating global uncertainty
Nigeria has the population, resources, and strategic location to become a continental and even global player. But it must act decisively, shed dependency thinking, and step confidently into the emerging multipolar world—not as a pawn, but as a player in its own right.
•Uche J. Udenka
Social & Political Analyst.
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